7. The risk of travel

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An aircraft accident is defined as an occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft which takes place between the time any person boards the aircraft with the intention of flight and all such persons have disembarked, and in which any person suffers death or serious injury, or in which the aircraft receives substantial damage.

Transport is a classic case of the public perception of risk being at variance with the actual numbers. The statistics range up and down, particularly in mass transport, where one incident can cause a large number of fatalities.

Another feature of transport risk is that the impact of the numbers is very dependent on how you represent them. Basically, there are three possible ways of quoting transport risk; in terms of distance travelled, number of journeys or time of travel. Interested parties tend to choose the form of presentation that suits their own purposes.

The air transport industry, for example, will almost always choose a per km basis, which is optimum for them, as most fatalities occur on landing and take-off, while the distances are large. Land based transport organisations, in contrast, will tend to select fatalities per number of journeys or hours of travel, since the risks are uniformly spread. Thus both are able to demonstrate that theirs is the safest form of transport. The actual statistics are given below (taken from an article by Roger Ford in Modern Railways, Oct 2000 and based on a DETR survey). They record the number of fatalities per billion km, journeys or hours of travel.

km	journeys	hours
Air 0.05	Bus 4.3	Bus 11.1
Bus 0.4	Rail 20	Rail 30
Rail 0.6	Van 20	Air 30.8
Van 1.2	Car 40	Water 50
Water 2.6	Foot 40	Van 60
Car 3.1	Water 90	Car 130
Pedal cycle 44.6	Air 117	Foot 220
Foot 54.2	Pedal cycle 170	Pedal cycle 550
Motorcycle 108.9	Motorcycle 1,640	Motorcycle 4,840

The one thing that stands out is that, whichever way you look at it, motorcycles are disastrously the most dangerous form of transport.

Bus and rail are the safest form of transport by any measure, while road traffic injuries represent the leading cause in worldwide injury-related deaths, their popularity undermines this statistic.

Airplane accident causes:

• air traffic control error
• bird strike
• cargo hold/cabin fire
• design flaw
• sabotage/explosive device
• fuel starvation
• hijacking (resulting in fatalities)
• lightning
• pilot incapacitation
• pilots shot by passengers

The number of accidents per flight decreases with time. But the number of fatalities per year is changing and does not decrease.

Nowadays, aircraft accidents are less likely than 20 years ago. Nevertheless, the growing number of flying aircraft and their increasing capacity cannot result in a reduction of onboard fatalitie.

7.1 Statistics

The table above is compiled from the PlaneCrashInfo.com accident database and represents 1,300 fatal accidents involving commercial aircraft, world-wide, from 1950 thru 2008 for which a specific cause is known. Aircraft with 10 or less people aboard, military aircraft, private aircraft and helicopters are not included.

"Pilot error (weather related)" represents accidents in which pilot error was the cause but brought about by weather related phenomena. "Pilot error (mechanical related)" represents accidents in which pilot error was the cause but brought about by some type of mechanical failure. "Other human error" includes air traffic controller errors, improper loading of aircraft, fuel contamination and improper maintenance procedures. Sabotage includes explosive devices, shoot downs and hijackings. "Total pilot error" is the total of all three types of pilot error (in red).

Cause	1950s	1960s	1970s	1980s	1990s	2000s	All
Pilot Error	40	32	24	25	27	25	29
Pilot Error (weather related)	11	18	14	17	21	17	16
Pilot Error (mechanical related)	7	5	4	2	4	3	4
Total Pilot Error	58	57	42	44	53	45	50
Other Human Error	0	8	9	6	8	9	7
Weather	16	10	13	15	9	8	12
Mechanical Failure	21	20	23	21	21	28	22
Sabotage	5	5	11	13	10	9	9
Other Cause	0	2	2	1	0	1	1

 

Where there were multiple causes, the most prominent cause was used. Source: PlaneCrashInfo.com database.

Which type of flying is safer?

Odds of being involved in a fatal accident

Survival rate of passengers on aircraft involved in fatal accidents carrying 10+ passengers

Survival rate of passengers on aircraft ditching during controlled flight

Survival rate of passengers on aircraft ditching during controlled flight

53%

For the following graphs we used lists of accidents and incidents involving commercial air transport accidents, road (bus) accidents and rail accidents, grouped by the years in which the accidents and incidents occurred.

The first graph represents the casualties of commercial air transport accidents (2000–2009) in the world, the second represents the casualties of notable road (bus) accidents (2000–2009) in the world and the third represents the casualties of notable rail accidents (2000–present) in the world

Regarding the road transportation there are much more variables when dealing with road accidents, as it involves cars, drivers, objects, pedestrians, meteorological changes and lots of other factors.

Rail transport is the safest form of land travel. Trains can travel at very high speed, but they are heavy, are unable to deviate from the track and require a great distance to stop. Possible accidents include derailment (jumping the track), a head-on collision with another train and collision with an automobile or other vehicle at a level crossing. The most important safety measures are railway signalling and gates at level crossings. Train whistles warn of the presence of a train, while trackside signals maintain the distances between trains. Vandalism and negligence is responsible for many accidents.

The last two graphs, below represent a comparison between the three means of transportation.

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